G4 3064 · SFB → TYS

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3064 · SFB → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?