G4 3200 · MCO → ATW

departs 8:17 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3200 · MCO → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?