G4 428 · VPS → CVG

departs 7:56 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at VPS

Weather at each end

VPS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 428 · VPS → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?