Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
G4 446 · AUS → DSM
departs 6:38 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.