G4 457 · LAS → DSM

departs 5:58 PM PT · arrives 10:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 457 · LAS → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?