Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
G4 841 · RFD → PGD
departs 4:45 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RFD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PGD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RFD
↓
PGD is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
RFD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.