Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
G4 853 · BLV → PGD
departs 7:34 PM CT · arrives 11:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BLV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BLV
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at PGD that day
Weather at each end
BLV (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.