Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
G7 4591 · MDT → IAD
departs 2:57 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MDT are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.