Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
IB 382 · SJU → MAD
departs 5:14 PM AT · arrives 6:25 AM CET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.