Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

JAPAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT JL 786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

JL 786 · NRT → HNL

departs 8:35 PM JST · arrives 9:10 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 786 · NRT → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?