Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

JAPAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT JL 797 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

JL 797 · HNL → NGO

departs 2:22 PM HT · arrives 6:07 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at NGO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NGO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NGO

↓ Arrivals into NGO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

NGO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JL 797 · HNL → NGO

Odds over time

How late will it get to NGO?