Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 11
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
JX 11 · SFO → TPE
departs 1:00 AM PT · arrives 5:27 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.