Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 4803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

KG 4803 · PUB → DEN

departs 4:29 PM MT · arrives 5:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PUB

Weather at each end

PUB (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 4803 · PUB → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?