Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

KLM · FLIGHT KL 282 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

KL 282 · SFO → AMS

departs 1:58 PM PT · arrives 8:01 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ AMS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 282 · SFO → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?