Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

KLM · FLIGHT KL 640 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

KL 640 · SAN → AMS

departs 1:44 PM PT · arrives 7:52 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 640 · SAN → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?