Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CAYMAN AIRWAYS · FLIGHT KX 202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
KX 202 · GCM → TPA
departs 12:40 PM EST · arrives 3:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave GCM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at GCM
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GCM (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.