Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
LH 454 · FRA → SFO
departs 10:25 AM CET · arrives 1:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.