Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
LH 457 · LAX → FRA
departs 3:23 PM PT · arrives 9:46 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
3pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
↓
FRA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.