Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
LH 481 · DEN → MUC
departs 4:19 PM MT · arrives 8:51 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MUC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.