Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LOT · FLIGHT LO 24 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:28 AM PT, ETA 8:11 PM CET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 29 Today

LO 24 · LAX → WAW

took off 1:28 AM PT · expected to land 8:11 PM CET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at WAW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into WAW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

WAW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 24 · LAX → WAW

Odds over time