Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3399
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3399 · DFW → ILM
departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.