Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3412 · CWA → ORD
departs 11:25 AM CT · arrives 12:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
11am departures from CWA are often late
↓
CWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.