Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 3426 · BFL → PHX
departs 10:07 AM PT · arrives 11:37 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
BFL is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.