Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3442
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3442 · ORD → RIC
departs 1:43 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at RIC that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.