Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3443
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3443 · ORD → ROC
departs 12:17 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.