Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3454 · CLE → ORD
departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 47%
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.