Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
MQ 3467 · SBA → PHX
departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 5:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
4pm departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.