Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 3474 · CWA → ORD
departs 6:21 AM CT · arrives 7:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
CWA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.