Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3510 · ORD → LSE
departs 5:08 PM CT · arrives 6:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LSE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LSE?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LSE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.