Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 3512 · CID → ORD
departs 5:08 AM CT · arrives 6:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
CID is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from CID are usually not late
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.