Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3605 · XNA → DFW
departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.