Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3610
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3610 · ORD → YYZ
departs 3:08 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM EDT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YYZ usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.