MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

departs 6:17 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?