Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3693 · DFW → XNA
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.