Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3765 · PHX → EUG
departs 9:24 PM MT · arrives 12:14 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into EUG at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.