Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3802
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3802 · SGF → ORD
departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.