Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3859 · DFW → FSM
departs 3:35 PM CT · arrives 4:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
FSM (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.