Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3873 · GRK → DFW
departs 9:59 AM CT · arrives 10:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave GRK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
GRK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.