Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3932
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3932 · DFW → MEM
departs 5:37 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.