Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3961 · SDF → BOS
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.