Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3973
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 3973 · ORD → BNA
departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 8:23 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.