Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3980 · DTW → ORD
departs 5:04 PM ET · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.