Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3994 · DFW → LCH
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 5:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LCH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LCH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
LCH (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.