Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4003 · CUU → DFW
departs 4:53 PM CST · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave CUU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at CUU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
4pm departures from CUU are usually not late
Weather at each end
CUU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.63 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.