Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4010 · DFW → MHK
departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHK
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into MHK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MHK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.