Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4015 · BTR → DFW
departs 5:32 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 20%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave BTR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BTR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
BTR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.