Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4026
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4026 · DFW → TRC
departs 8:13 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TRC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TRC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TRC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TRC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TRC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
TRC (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.