Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT
departs 9:34 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.