Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4078
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4078 · CHA → DFW
departs 12:27 PM ET · arrives 1:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave CHA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
CHA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
CHA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.