Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4084 · DFW → OKC
departs 10:52 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OKC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.